The odds of a U.S. recession have decreased following President Trump's announcement of a 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs on most countries. This decision led to a significant drop in recession odds on prediction markets, ranging between 15% and 25%. In the aftermath, stock markets surged, with major indices like the Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 reaching substantial intraday highs. Goldman Sachs withdrew its previous recession forecast for the U.S. by the end of 2025, echoing reduced fears among analysts and investors. Despite the optimistic market response, some experts, including economist Justin Wolfers, caution that the risks of recession remain notably high. Market reactions included a jump in cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum, with Bitcoin's price rising to $81,300 following the tariff pause announcement. Overall, while the tariff pause temporarily eases recession concerns, analysts warn that economic vulnerabilities persist.

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