Prediction markets show a significant increase in the odds of a U.S. recession, following President Donald Trump's announcement of a 10% blanket tariff on trading partners. On Polymarket, the chance of a recession by the end of 2025 rose to 50%, while Kalshi reported 56%. These probabilities had been 40% and 43% just a day prior. Myriad Markets indicated a 53.6% probability, indicative of mounting concerns regarding Trump's aggressive tariff policy and its potential to disrupt the global economy. Economists warn that these tariffs will elevate prices and hamper growth, describing the policy as a major economic error. As a result, market reactions have been severe, with significant drops in major stock indices and Bitcoin's price, which fell below $82,000. Despite the turmoil, some analysts maintain a bullish outlook on Bitcoin, predicting a market recovery once the initial chaos subsides.

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