As Canada prepares for its 45th election, prediction markets indicate that Liberal Party candidate Mark Carney is heavily favored to become the next Prime Minister, with a 78% probability according to Polymarket, compared to Conservative Pierre Poilievre's 22%. While recent polls show Carney at an even higher chance of 89%, there are suggestions that prediction platforms may be open to manipulation. Despite these criticisms, there is no substantial evidence supporting such claims. Platforms like Myriad.Markets initially showed Poilievre with a 70% chance but have since aligned closer to Polymarket’s figures. The Canadian election contract on Polymarket boasts the highest open interest, reflecting strong engagement. Betting patterns reveal significant skepticism among bettors regarding Poilievre's potential victory, with one trader highlighting the low likelihood of a 7-point polling error needed for Poilievre to win. As it stands, Carney's supporters appear more confident in the outcome, underscoring the divergence in views among political bettors.

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