Parsing the data for hints of US tariff impacts
The article examines the early effects of US tariffs on the economy as they are actively being collected. The current effective tariff rate for China is around 12.6%. Preliminary data suggests corporations are primarily absorbing the cost increases rather than passing them on to consumers. This situation is indicated by a significant decrease in Producer Price Index (PPI) due to a drop in portfolio management fees, with price increases largely borne by businesses instead of consumers. In retail sales, non-tariff impacted categories saw growth, while those heavily affected by tariffs, such as big box retailers, are experiencing declines. This pattern reflects an initial front-running before tariff implementation, followed by a leveling off in prices and subsequent demand destruction due to higher costs. The article emphasizes the necessity of digging into economic data to gain a clearer understanding of how tariffs influence consumption and pricing behaviors.
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