A consensus among seven leading AI models suggests the Israel-Iran conflict will lead to a prolonged shadow war, characterized by airstrikes, cyberattacks, and proxy battles, rather than full-scale war. Most models indicate mutual deterrence, U.S. restraint, and survival instincts will prevent escalation, but warn of risks from miscalculations and nuclear pressures. Only one model, ChatGPT, predicts a near-term diplomatic resolution, envisioning potential quiet negotiations and an updated nuclear deal. The remaining models forecast escalated military actions as both sides navigate tensions while avoiding catastrophic outcomes. Predictions span various timelines, primarily 3 to 24 months of intermittent conflict, with notable points on key players’ strategies and constraints influencing their decisions. Each model highlights distinct outcomes based on factors like Israel’s tactical strikes and Iran’s rapid weaponization capabilities, which contribute to a complex regional dynamic. The informed analysis reflects a landscape of elevated but manageable tensions between the two nations.

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