How Will the Israel-Iran Conflict End? Here's What AI Models Predict
A consensus among seven AI models predicts a prolonged shadow war between Israel and Iran, with airstrikes, cyberattacks, and proxy battles overshadowing the risk of full-scale war. Six of the models forewarn that mutual deterrence, U.S. restraint, and survival instincts will prevent escalation. However, factors like miscalculation, nuclear pressure, and proxy overreach remain concerns. Predictions range from three to 24 months of low-intensity conflict. The most optimistic forecast from ChatGPT suggests a diplomatic resolution could be achieved through negotiations within weeks, interpreting Iran's restrained retaliation as a sign of their preference for diplomacy. In contrast, other models such as Google Gemini and Anthropic Claude predict sustained military campaigns driven by retaliatory needs. Overall, the situation remains volatile, with a consensus on the inevitability of continued indirect conflict until a shift in dynamics occurs.
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