In a recent analysis, seven AI models were tasked with predicting the outcome of the conflict between Israel and Iran. Six out of seven models forecast a prolonged shadow war characterized by intermittent airstrikes, cyberattacks, and proxy battles, while only OpenAI's ChatGPT predicted a near-term diplomatic resolution. Key factors preventing escalation include mutual deterrence, U.S. reluctance to intervene, and strategic calculations by both countries. Most models anticipate a range of sustained low-intensity conflict over the coming months. Google Gemini projects a controlled escalation over 12 to 24 months with periodic military actions, while Anthropic Claude warns of Iran’s potential for a decisive retaliatory action. ChatGPT, on the other hand, envisions negotiations possibly mediated by Oman or Qatar leading to updated nuclear agreements. Despite predictions of continued conflict, all models emphasize the catastrophic risks of full-scale war and stress the need for rational decision-making amid high stakes.

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