Macroeconomic theories in the early 2000s suggested that traditional recessions might become rare due to improved monetary policies and a shift from manufacturing to services. However, the Great Recession of 2008 challenged this notion, despite being a financial issue rather than a classic cyclical recession. Since then, the US has seen only three recessions, none driven by regular business cycles, but rather by extraordinary shocks like the dotcom bust, 9/11, and the Covid pandemic. Recently, markets indicated a lower probability of a recession, prompting speculation about what could truly cause one, with the argument that modern economies are more resilient and flexible. Key indicators suggest economic growth and sustained wage increases outpacing inflation. Moreover, global equities have reached new heights, suggesting a robust economic backdrop despite ongoing tariff challenges. The article posits optimism about the economy's ability to navigate future shocks, potentially marking the end of traditional recession cycles.

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