Network economist Timothy Peterson warns that if the US Federal Reserve refrains from cutting rates in 2025, it could trigger a broader market downturn, pushing Bitcoin down to around $70,000. Peterson mentioned that the market might need a simple trigger, such as the Fed’s decision to maintain rates. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell emphasized the importance of waiting for greater clarity before making adjustments to interest rates. He projected that, based on trends and Peterson’s Nasdaq model, a bear market could see Bitcoin decline by approximately 33%, settling around $57,000 from its current price of $86,199. However, given historical patterns, Peterson anticipates that Bitcoin may not drop as low as projected, likely finding a bottom near the low $70,000s. He compared this situation to past trends, noting that Bitcoin did not drop to previously expected lows in 2022. Similar sentiments were echoed by BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes, who predicted a correction in Bitcoin's price between $70,000 and $75,000, suggesting further financial developments leading to a potential rally towards $250,000 by year-end.

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