Bitcoin has broken a 12-year rising support trendline against gold, with the BTC/XAU ratio declining as gold prices reached a historic high of over $3,000 per ounce on March 14, 2025. While gold has surged approximately 12.80% year-to-date, Bitcoin has fallen by 11%. This divergence is attributed to increasing macroeconomic uncertainty, driving investors towards gold as a safe asset amid fears of a global economic slowdown. Notably, US-based gold ETFs attracted over $6.48 billion in inflows, while Bitcoin ETFs experienced $1.46 billion in outflows. The current market conditions reflect a growing correlation between Bitcoin and risk-on markets, with a 0.76 correlation coefficient with the Nasdaq Composite. Analysts warn that if Bitcoin remains below the critical gold trendline, it could signify the end of its bull run, prompting fears of larger declines if certain support levels are breached. Historical patterns indicate that Bitcoin's recent performance echoes previous market trends preceding corrections. If Bitcoin's price does not stabilize above key support levels, it risks entering bear market territory with potential targets down to $34,850, marking a significant drop from its January 2025 peak.

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