Bitcoin's onchain data indicates a significant depletion of exchange and OTC balances, suggesting long-term accumulation and tightening supply. Despite a general downturn in trading volumes and a drop in retail investor activity, Bitcoin's price has been consistently rising, recently noted at $110,000. The supply of Bitcoin held on exchanges has fallen by 14% since the start of 2025, signaling increased investor confidence as coins are moved into long-term storage. OTC desks are also experiencing a decline in reserves, down by 19% since January, pointing to a further reduction in liquid supply. In this tight supply environment, even minimal demand can lead to sharp price movements, particularly when futures market funding rates turn negative. This dynamic has historically resulted in significant price surges following similar patterns. The current market may appear calm, but with the mismatch between leverage and real demand, any liquidations in derivatives could trigger explosive movements in Bitcoin's price.

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