Bitcoin historically experiences significant rallies when two specific conditions are met: low market leverage and stronger-than-expected retail sales alongside hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve. In past instances, Bitcoin's price surged between 50% and 84% over periods of seven weeks when these factors aligned. Notable rallies occurred from early January to March 2024 and early 2023, with price increases rising from approximately $40,000 to $73,500, and from $16,700 to $25,100, respectively. Factors contributing to these surges include low perpetual futures funding rates and favorable retail data that surprised economists. Upcoming speeches from Fed Chair Jerome Powell and retail sales data releases are critical for anticipating the next potential movements in Bitcoin's price. The consistent link between these significant rallies is a decrease in expansionary Fed policy expectations and low leverage demand from investors, creating ideal conditions for a bullish market.

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