A Monte Carlo simulation conducted by Mark Quant predicts a potential Bitcoin price rise to $713,000 within the next six months, with a mean price target of $258,445 by September 2025. The model suggests fluctuating price scenarios ranging from a low of $51,430 to a high of $713,000, signifying an 800% increase from its current level around $82,655. However, Bitcoin recently faced a decline to $80,688, marking the lowest close since November 2024 and dropping below its 200-day EMA, indicating potential weakness in market trends. Despite the Crypto Fear & Greed Index showing “extreme fear,” the Monte Carlo model indicates bullish projections for Bitcoin in the latter half of 2025. The analysis relies on geometric Brownian motion to accommodate Bitcoin’s volatility and historical performance. Moreover, the price dropped over the weekend, creating a CME gap between $83,000 and $86,000, which could potentially be filled based on historical price behaviors. Technical analysts anticipate a possible short squeeze, while emphasizing the risks of losing key support levels.

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