Bitcoin is approaching a golden cross as its 50-day simple moving average is set to close above the 200-day simple moving average for the first time since October 2024. Historically, such crosses have led to significant price rallies of 45-60% for Bitcoin, but there have been notable failures, like the February 2020 bull trap. Recent supportive fundamentals, such as rising M2 supply and easing trade tensions, bolster a bullish outlook. However, bearish divergence and overbought conditions raise concerns about a potential drop below $100,000. Instead of an immediate rally post-cross, Bitcoin could initially pull back towards its support levels around $92,400-95,000. A divergence between rising prices and a falling relative strength index (RSI) further suggests potential short-term downside risks. Investors are advised to consider broader market indicators alongside the golden cross signals for better risk management.

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