Mark Carney's odds of winning the upcoming Canadian election are rising, while those of challenger Pierre Poilievre are declining, according to prediction markets. Carney, who recently took over as Prime Minister from Justin Trudeau, now has over 82% predicted chances of winning on MYRIAD, a significant increase from earlier assessments. Meanwhile, Polymarket shows an 83% likelihood for Carney compared to just 17% for Poilievre. This shift in momentum comes after Poilievre, once favored thanks to endorsements including one from Elon Musk, has failed to garner the same level of support amidst changing political dynamics. Carney's focus on digital currency and CBDC has resonated with voters, particularly as he positions himself more sympathetically toward those wary of Trump’s influence. Poilievre, known for his pro-Bitcoin stance, has not managed to connect enough with Canadians, especially following criticisms of his approach toward Trump. In summary, Carney’s critical stance toward Bitcoin appears to be bolstering his appeal in the political landscape leading up to the election on April 28, 2025.

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