Cardinal Robert Prevost was elected pope, becoming the first U.S.-born pontiff, in a surprising outcome that overturned global betting odds. With less than a 2% chance of winning, Prevost's election shocked bettors and altered the landscape of Vatican history. The betting market had heavily favored other candidates, particularly Cardinal Pietro Parolin, who was expected to succeed Pope Francis after his death in April 2025. As white smoke emerged from the Sistine Chapel signaling Prevost's election, the betting community was left stunned. A few bettors capitalized on the underdog's victory, with significant returns on their wagers. This event highlights the unpredictable nature of papal elections and the surprises that can occur within traditional institutions.

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